With President Joe Biden stepping out of the 2024 race and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris, the political landscape is set for a potential showdown between Harris and former President Donald Trump. This raises questions about whether the upcoming election will mirror the 2016 race between Trump and Hillary Clinton or pave the way for a Democratic triumph.
Harris, although needing to secure enough delegates at the Democratic National Convention next month to become the official nominee, is now seen as the front-runner. This development provides a sigh of relief to many Democrats worried about Biden’s recent poor polling numbers. However, Harris herself will face significant challenges in a head-to-head contest with Trump, as indicated by recent polling averages from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) and The Hill.
Trump, having officially accepted the Republican nomination, currently leads Harris by 2 points in national polls, with 47 percent support to Harris’s 45 percent. This margin mirrors Trump’s 2.5-point lead over Biden, with Trump at 46 percent and Biden at 43.5 percent. When factoring in independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s lead over Harris widens to 6 points, holding 43 percent support compared to Harris’s 37 percent, with Kennedy at 6 percent.
Harris’s favorability rating stands at 38 percent, slightly lower than Biden’s 41 percent. Scott Tranter, director of data science at DDHQ, noted, “Her favorability nationally mirrors Biden’s — it’s not great. Her upside, though, is she doesn’t have all the baggage Biden has, and voters are going to take a fresh look at her.”
Despite Trump’s 2-point lead over Harris, this gap has narrowed from around 8 points at the start of the year, providing some optimism for her supporters. Various surveys also suggest that Harris might perform better against Trump than Biden would. An Economist/YouGov survey revealed that approximately 8 in 10 Democrats approve of Harris becoming the nominee if Biden steps aside, with over a quarter believing she has a better chance of defeating Trump than Biden does.
A CBS News poll indicated Harris trailing Trump by 3 points, whereas Biden lagged by 5 points. Following the first presidential debate, a CNN poll showed Harris running closer to Trump, only 2 points behind, while Biden was 6 points behind. Additionally, a survey by Bendixen & Amandi Inc. placed Harris 1 point ahead of Trump.
Strategists highlight that Harris is well-positioned to seamlessly transition into Biden’s campaign structure and the Democratic National Committee’s fundraising mechanisms. Her agenda is closely aligned with Biden’s, and at 59 years old, she brings a younger, dynamic presence to the ticket as a Black woman, potentially appealing to critical Democratic demographics. Democratic strategist Michael Starr Hopkins noted, “When you have a young Black woman on the ticket in place of Joe Biden, it really eliminates a lot of the arguments that Republicans are going to use against [Biden].”
However, state-level polling indicates a tough battle ahead for Harris. Trump holds significant leads in key battleground states, such as a 9-point advantage in Nevada, 7 points in Arizona, and 6 points in Georgia. Trump also leads by 4 points in Pennsylvania, 1 point in Wisconsin, and less than half a point in Michigan, while Harris leads by 3 points in Virginia. The lack of extensive polling data for a Harris-Trump matchup adds to the uncertainty.
Harris’s increased media attention since Biden’s exit hints at the intensified scrutiny she would face as the nominee. Additionally, speculation is growing about her potential running mate, with some believing this choice could significantly impact the election outcome.
The process of securing the more than 3,800 delegates Biden won in the primary process will be a critical challenge for Harris as the Democratic National Convention approaches. Democratic delegates are not bound to their candidate in an unprecedented situation like Biden stepping aside, making the upcoming convention a crucial moment for Harris.
Biden’s decision to step down, announced via a letter on social media, marks the end of his long political career and introduces new dynamics to the race. His endorsement of Harris underscores his belief in her capability to lead and unite the Democratic Party against Trump’s “extreme Project 2025 agenda.”
Prominent Democrats quickly rallied around Harris, with endorsements from figures like California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and numerous congressional leaders. Their support highlights the party’s effort to consolidate around Harris and present a unified front.
Conversely, Republicans seized on Biden’s withdrawal, with House Speaker Mike Johnson calling for Biden’s immediate resignation, questioning his fitness to serve. Trump, responding to Biden’s exit, criticized the president’s tenure and expressed confidence in his own chances.
Biden’s unexpected departure, coming just months before the election, has created an unprecedented political scenario. As the Democratic Party navigates this transition, the focus will be on Harris’s ability to galvanize support, effectively campaign against Trump, and address the legal and logistical challenges of becoming the nominee.
The 2024 race, now shaped by Biden’s exit and Harris’s emergence as the Democratic contender, promises to be one of the most unpredictable and closely watched elections in recent history. Whether it will resemble the 2016 Trump-Clinton battle or lead to a Democratic victory remains to be seen, with the coming months crucial in determining the outcome.