The United States is urging its key Indo-Pacific allies, Japan and Australia, to clarify their potential roles in the event of a military conflict with China over Taiwan. The push, led by U.S. Under-Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, has reportedly caused unease among Japanese and Australian officials, who were not expecting such direct requests.
According to five sources familiar with the matter, Colby has raised the issue repeatedly in recent meetings with defense counterparts, part of a broader effort to bolster regional deterrence against China. While Washington has maintained a long-standing policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding Taiwan—neither confirming nor denying whether it would intervene militarily—Colby’s approach seeks more explicit commitments from allies.
A U.S. defense official, without directly addressing the Taiwan-related request, emphasized that the broader message of the discussions has been about strengthening deterrence through shared responsibility. “We are not seeking war or domination over China,” the official stated. “Our objective is to ensure we and our allies are strong enough to maintain peace and support diplomatic efforts.”
The push includes calls for increased defense spending by allies and more concrete operational planning related to a Taiwan contingency. One source noted that this demand came as a surprise to Tokyo and Canberra, particularly since the U.S. itself does not offer an unconditional security guarantee to Taiwan.
Experts like Zack Cooper of the American Enterprise Institute argue that demanding detailed commitments from allies without providing clarity on the U.S.’s own intentions is unrealistic. “It’s difficult for allies to commit without knowing the context of the conflict or America’s specific response,” Cooper said.
So far, the U.S. efforts have been aimed at mid-level defense officials rather than top political leaders. Reactions in allied capitals have been cautious. Japan’s Ministry of Defense responded by saying it would handle any Taiwan-related crisis on a case-by-case basis, in accordance with international and domestic laws. The Australian Embassy in Washington declined to comment.
Colby’s assertive strategy follows other actions that have stirred debate, including a recent review of the AUKUS agreement that will see Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines. He has also urged European allies to shift their focus away from the Indo-Pacific and concentrate more on Euro-Atlantic security. A reported sudden escalation in U.S. demands for increased Japanese defense spending even led Tokyo to cancel a high-level bilateral meeting.
These developments come amid heightened sensitivity in Japan, particularly with upper house elections scheduled for July 20. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba publicly rejected one of Colby’s calls for greater defense investment, highlighting the domestic political stakes involved.
Despite these tensions, the Pentagon believes both Japan and Australia are likely to accelerate their defense spending more quickly than European allies did after similar U.S. appeals. “This isn’t just in our interest—it’s also in theirs,” a U.S. official said.
The official added that while Washington recognizes the political challenges its allies face, fairness and burden-sharing are essential. “We’re committed to working closely with our allies to ensure our collective security posture remains strong and effective.”
In conclusion, while the U.S. is intensifying its calls for cooperation in the face of growing regional threats, the diplomatic balancing act with its closest Indo-Pacific partners remains delicate and ongoing.
