With President Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” now headed for his signature, Republicans in Congress are preparing for the next major political challenge: defending their seats in the 2026 midterm elections.
The bill — a comprehensive legislative package that makes Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent while slashing Medicaid funding and eliminating clean energy tax credits — has sparked fierce partisan debate and divided public opinion. While Republicans tout the measure as a historic economic win, Democrats believe it could become a powerful weapon against the GOP in upcoming elections.
A Political Gamble for Republicans
The bill passed the House on July 3 in a narrow 218-214 vote, following intense negotiations. It includes tax breaks for tips and overtime pay, business incentives, and $170 billion in border security funding. At the same time, it is projected to leave nearly 12 million Americans without Medicaid coverage over the next decade and strip 2 million people of access to food assistance under SNAP.
Despite the bill’s scope, public sentiment leans negative. A Fox News poll in June found only 38% support for the bill, with 59% opposed. Similar polling from Quinnipiac, KFF, Pew, and The Washington Post suggests growing unease among voters.
“This will cost Republicans the House,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “This bill is an example of Republicans turning away from their constituents.”
Democrats Prepare to Campaign on Medicaid Cuts
Democrats are drawing parallels to the GOP’s failed attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act in 2017, which preceded a 40-seat Republican loss in the 2018 midterms. They plan to highlight the Medicaid cuts as a central campaign issue, especially in swing districts.
“Republicans have written the script for 2026,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.). “This bill shows how the GOP serves Trump and the wealthy elite, not working families.”
Even some Republicans are privately concerned. According to NOTUS, during a July 2 meeting with GOP lawmakers, Trump reportedly warned that cutting Medicaid, Medicare, or Social Security could be politically dangerous. One lawmaker replied, “But we’re touching Medicaid in this bill.”
GOP Divided but Strategizing
Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who represents a competitive district and has announced plans to retire, acknowledged the bill’s risks. He ultimately supported it, citing a $141 monthly tax savings for Nebraskans and defense spending increases. However, he admitted the Senate’s deeper Medicaid cuts made it easier for Democrats to attack.
“I could have defended the House bill every day,” Bacon said. “But do I want to raise taxes on the middle class? No. Do I want to fix defense? Yes.”
Others, like Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.), say compromises in the bill addressed their concerns. He pointed to provisions allowing hospitals in his district to maintain adequate federal funding.
“We’re a long way from gutting Medicaid,” Van Drew said. “We’ve taken a more intelligent approach.”
Republican Leaders: Tax Cuts Will Win the Day
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) remains optimistic. He believes the economic relief the bill delivers will be appreciated by voters.
“Every Democrat in the House and Senate voted no,” Scalise said. “Americans will see the benefits of this bill and remember which party stood with them.”
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is already shaping its messaging. In a memo, it emphasized that Republicans blocked “the largest tax hike in generations” and championed border security. NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella said Democrats appeared “elitist” and “out of touch,” and vowed that the GOP would make this vote a defining issue in 2026.
Conclusion
With the “Big, Beautiful Bill” now poised to become law, Republicans are celebrating a major legislative win — but also bracing for political fallout. Whether tax cuts and defense spending will be enough to outweigh the backlash over Medicaid and social program cuts remains to be seen.
As the 2026 midterms approach, both parties are already sharpening their messages. For Republicans, it’s a bet that economic growth and tax relief will carry the day. For Democrats, it’s a chance to flip the House by campaigning on healthcare, equity, and protecting the social safety net.
