The Big Picture:
The Biden administration is nearing the conclusion of a landmark security and defense deal with Saudi Arabia, a development poised to significantly alter Middle Eastern geopolitics. This potential treaty, named the Strategic Alliance Agreement, is aimed at fostering diplomatic ties between Riyadh and Israel, a key priority for President Biden.
Driving the News:
According to the Wall Street Journal, this deal commits the U.S. to defend Saudi Arabia. In exchange, Riyadh would grant the U.S. access to its territory and airspace, thereby enhancing the protection of American interests and regional partners. This draft treaty is modeled on the U.S.-Japan mutual security pact, which has been pivotal in ensuring stability in East Asia.
Key Details:
The draft agreement also seeks to prevent China from establishing military bases or security cooperation with Saudi Arabia, aiming to counter Beijing’s expanding influence in the Middle East. By binding Riyadh closer to Washington, the U.S. hopes to fortify its strategic position in the region.
Why It Matters:
This agreement represents a significant milestone for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), enhancing Saudi Arabia’s strategic importance while addressing security concerns and regional stability. For the U.S., it underscores a renewed commitment to its traditional allies in the Gulf amid shifting global power dynamics.
Broader Context:
The deal is part of a broader package, which includes a U.S.-Saudi civil nuclear pact, measures toward establishing a Palestinian state, and efforts to end the ongoing conflict in Gaza. The Biden administration views this comprehensive approach as crucial for fostering long-term peace and stability in the region. The ceasefire efforts in Gaza have repeatedly failed, making this initiative even more urgent.
Political Hurdles:
The approval of this treaty will require a two-thirds majority vote in the U.S. Senate, a challenging threshold to meet. The administration is banking on the inclusion of Israeli-Saudi normalization to garner broader support. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is scheduled to visit the region to finalize details and rally support for the deal.
Behind the Scenes:
Recent progress was made during a meeting between U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and MBS in Dhahran, home to Saudi Aramco. Saudi officials have described the draft agreement as “nearly final.” This significant development underscores the diplomatic efforts by both nations to secure this historic deal.
Strategic Implications:
The agreement aims to solidify U.S.-Saudi ties at a critical juncture, with China increasingly seeking to expand its influence in the Middle East. The Biden administration hopes that the treaty will also exert pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make concessions towards Palestinian statehood, which is seen as a critical component of the broader peace strategy.
What to Watch:
As the U.S. and Saudi Arabia aim to finalize the agreement in the coming days, Blinken’s talks in Israel will be crucial. Netanyahu’s opposition to a Palestinian state, coupled with internal political pressure, adds complexity to the negotiations. The domestic political crisis in Israel, with two of the three unity war cabinet ministers questioning Netanyahu’s Gaza strategy, further complicates the situation.
Potential Roadblocks:
Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition, which includes ministers advocating for Israeli settlement in the West Bank and Gaza, may resist any compromise on Palestinian statehood. Domestically, the U.S. faces challenges as well, with Democrats skeptical of Saudi Arabia’s human rights record and Prince Mohammad’s actions. The treaty’s approval in the U.S. Senate hinges on bipartisan support, which may be difficult to secure.
Flashback:
This deal builds on the framework of the Trump-era Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several regional neighbors, though Saudi Arabia was not included. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally, has been actively advocating for this diplomatic breakthrough, highlighting its significance for regional stability and U.S. interests.
What’s Next:
The Biden administration is racing against the Congressional calendar to secure the deal. The aim is to finalize the documents within days, ensuring that the treaty can be presented to lawmakers for approval before the session ends. This deal, if successful, could reshape Middle Eastern alliances and underscore MBS’s diplomatic clout on the global stage.
Additional Context:
The broader strategic landscape includes U.S. efforts to curb Chinese influence in the region. The proposed treaty’s clause prohibiting China from establishing bases in Saudi Arabia reflects this strategic calculus. By strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia, the U.S. aims to reinforce its presence in the Gulf and ensure that key regional players remain aligned with Western interests.
Regional Impact:
Normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel could have far-reaching implications for the Middle East. It could pave the way for broader Arab-Israeli cooperation, fostering economic, technological, and security partnerships. This alignment could also serve as a counterbalance to Iranian influence in the region, further stabilizing the geopolitical landscape.
Diplomatic Efforts:
The negotiations underscore the intensive diplomatic efforts by the Biden administration to achieve this milestone. Secretary Blinken’s forthcoming visit to the region aims to finalize the terms and address any lingering concerns. His talks with Israeli and Saudi leaders will be pivotal in securing the necessary compromises to move forward.
Conclusion:
The imminent security and defense deal between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia represents a significant geopolitical shift. For MBS, it marks a major accomplishment, enhancing Saudi Arabia’s strategic importance and signaling its pivotal role in the Middle East. For the U.S., it reaffirms a commitment to its allies and counters the influence of adversaries like China. As negotiations reach their final stages, the outcome could redefine regional alliances and contribute to long-term peace and stability.
