In an unprecedented turn of events, Congress is witnessing a historic wave of retirements, with 13 senators and representatives announcing this month that they won’t seek re-election. This mass exodus, the highest number in over a decade, is sending shockwaves through Capitol Hill and has far-reaching implications for both Republicans and Democrats.
The departure of lawmakers is fueled by a perfect storm of factors, including the aftermath of the House speaker’s battle, a surge in partisan conflicts leading to censures and impeachments, and the looming threat of yet another government shutdown. This confluence of events has created an environment that some lawmakers find untenable, with even insults exchanged on Capitol Hill.
On the Democratic side, nine House members are leaving to run for the Senate, reflecting a shift in ambitions within the party. Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) adds to the list as he opts not to seek re-election after launching a long-shot bid for the presidency. Age and health concerns are also contributing factors, with the 118th Congress starting with the oldest Senate in history.
There are, yet, a host of major departures that are worth highlighting.
After decades of service and overcoming cancer, Kildee’s departure deals a blow to Democrats. The Cook Political Report now predicts a toss-up in 2024, signaling an opportunity for Republicans in a district traditionally leaning Democrat.
Representative Mark Walker (R-N.C.) opted to run for North Carolina’s attorney general seat due to redistricting challenges. The new map presents a chance for Republicans to flip four House seats, including Walker’s district.
Tragic news of a rare neurological disorder led Representative Jennifer Wexton (D-Va.) to announce her departure. While the district has leaned Democrat in recent years, Wexton’s exit sparks Republican hopes in a region that was reliably red as recently as 2012.
Representative Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) announced her decision not to seek re-election but to run for governor instead. This move alters the political landscape, prompting the Cook Political Report to shift the district’s status from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.”
The vacated seats present potential pickup opportunities for Republicans in both the House and Senate. Notably, all House GOP departures, except Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), are from reliably red districts, while several districts left by Democrats are competitive. The departures of swing-seat Democrats are seen as making the party’s climb out of the minority even steeper.
According to experts, the current exodus is telling, especially about the overall state of US politics. It’s a reflection of divisions, polarization, and the politics of no middle ground.
Yet this wave of retirements may usher in an era where Republicans embracing former President Trump’s MAGA movement gain prominence, bringing a burn-it-all-down mentality to Washington. A similar dynamic could unfold among Democrats, with progressives eyeing open seats as opportunities to influence the party’s direction.
Lawmakers and political analysts suggest that the surge in departures is a result of recent chaos, longstanding frustrations, and expected retirements. The absence of norms, respect for the institution, and a sense of obligation to be truthful are cited as contributing factors. The 10 straight weeks in session and the speaker vacancy are noted as intensifying factors that may have prompted some lawmakers to reconsider their commitment to Congress.
Comparisons are drawn to previous election cycles, where an exodus of lawmakers from one party signaled expectations for the upcoming elections. In 2018, a significant number of Republican retirements preceded a “blue wave” midterm election that shifted the majority in the House. The current wave of retirements raises questions about the potential political landscape leading up to the next elections.
As Congress grapples with this historically chaotic session, the wave of retirements underscores the challenges faced by the entire US political landscape in navigating a divided nation, bitter partisanship, and performance politics. Whether this wave will reshape the balance of power and influence the trajectory of political movements remains to be seen, but it undoubtedly marks a significant moment in the evolving landscape of American politics through polarization.
