A new public opinion survey has revealed that 26.5% of New York City residents are considering relocating if Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani wins the upcoming mayoral election, underscoring deep divisions and uncertainty about the city’s political and economic direction.
The poll, conducted by the New York Public Affairs Institute, surveyed more than 2,000 registered voters across all five boroughs between October 17 and 22, ahead of early voting. It reflects a mix of anxiety, polarization, and economic concern in the lead-up to one of the city’s most contentious races in years.
Concerns Over Policy Shifts and Economic Impact
According to the survey, many respondents cited fears of rising taxes, increased regulation, and shifts in law enforcement priorities under a Mamdani administration as key reasons for their hesitation about staying in the city.
“People are worried about the unknown,” said Eleanor Fisher, director of polling at NYPAI. “Mamdani’s progressive platform excites a new generation of voters, but it also makes long-time residents and small business owners nervous about what kind of changes may come.”
Mamdani, a state assembly member representing Queens and a prominent progressive voice, has campaigned on a platform of rent control expansion, free public transit for low-income residents, and major police reform. Supporters say his policies would create a fairer, more equitable city. Critics, however, warn they could lead to higher costs and an exodus of middle-income residents.
Who’s Thinking of Leaving?
The data shows that potential outmigration sentiment is strongest among:
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Upper-income households (earning over $150,000 per year), at 41%.
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Small business owners, at 38%.
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Residents of Manhattan and Staten Island, where over one-third expressed concern about future city policies.
Conversely, younger voters (aged 18–34) and residents of Queens and the Bronx expressed high levels of enthusiasm for Mamdani’s campaign, with many describing his message as a “new deal for working-class New Yorkers.”
“If Mamdani wins, it will show that ordinary people finally have power again,” said Luis Ortiz, a 27-year-old barista from the Bronx. “Those threatening to leave have had the city their way for decades.”
Political Context
The findings come just as the mayoral race tightens between Mamdani, former Governor Andrew Cuomo (Independent), and Republican Curtis Sliwa. Recent polls show Cuomo and Mamdani running neck-and-neck, while Sliwa maintains a consistent conservative base.
Mayor Eric Adams, who endorsed Cuomo earlier this week, dismissed the relocation fears as “political theater,” calling New York “strong enough to handle any administration.”
Nonetheless, the growing talk of potential outmigration has entered the political conversation, with Cuomo supporters citing the survey as evidence that Mamdani’s policies could “drive out investment and jobs.”
Experts Warn Against Overreaction
Urban policy experts caution against taking the numbers as a literal forecast of an exodus, noting that many New Yorkers regularly express dissatisfaction during election cycles without actually moving.
“New York is a city that thrives on conflict and contrast,” said Dr. Stephen Lau, professor of urban studies at Hunter College. “Whenever politics swing one way or another, some people say they’ll leave — but the city always finds a new balance.”
Still, Lau noted that even the perception of instability could influence real estate trends and business confidence in the short term.
A Mirror of New York’s Divide
The survey captures more than just political preference — it highlights the cultural and economic fault lines that have long defined New York City: wealth versus equity, tradition versus reform, and fear versus hope for change.
As Election Day approaches on November 4, the question is not only who will lead the city, but what kind of city New Yorkers want to live in — and whether nearly a quarter of them truly mean it when they say they might leave.
