President Donald Trump’s bold claim that the June 21 U.S. airstrikes “completely obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program has sparked intense scrutiny, as experts, lawmakers, and intelligence officials raise concerns about the actual impact of the strikes.
Following the coordinated U.S. and Israeli attacks on several of Iran’s nuclear sites, Trump celebrated what he called a definitive victory. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed the sentiment, telling CNN that the strikes “obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons.”
However, nuclear experts and members of Congress are casting doubt on these assertions, warning that while the attacks may have disrupted Iran’s progress, they are unlikely to have permanently dismantled the country’s nuclear capabilities.
A Strategic Setback — Not Total Destruction
“The targets are hard, deep, and mobile,” said Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Illinois), a senior member of the House Intelligence Committee. “It was never meant to eliminate the program—just to slow it down. We’ve always been told that the only way to truly end Iran’s nuclear program is a full-scale ground war.”
Corey Hinderstein, a former director at the National Nuclear Security Administration and current vice president at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, concurred. “The conventional wisdom that airstrikes alone can’t destroy the Iranian program still holds. We don’t have enough evidence to say the threat is gone.”
Intelligence Uncertainty and Hidden Sites
According to early intelligence assessments shared with Congress, key questions remain unanswered—including the fate of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Satellite imagery showed cargo trucks outside the Fordow facility shortly before it was struck, leading analysts to question whether some of the uranium was relocated in advance.
Officials also acknowledged the possibility that Iran’s nuclear infrastructure may be more extensive than publicly known. In particular, concerns are mounting about an alleged underground enrichment site near Pickaxe Mountain, first revealed by analysts in 2023. It may be buried even deeper than Fordow and is believed to have escaped damage during the attacks.
Iran has admitted some damage to its facilities, but international inspectors have yet to verify how much of the country’s estimated 880 pounds of highly enriched uranium was affected.
“We need a full accounting of the uranium,” said Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), who attended the classified briefings. “Iran needs to come to the table and allow the IAEA to verify what’s still there.”
Iran Ends Cooperation with Nuclear Inspectors
Despite pressure from Western powers, Iran’s Guardian Council approved legislation on June 25 suspending the country’s cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Iran’s foreign minister stated on social media that inspections will resume only “when the safety and security of our nuclear activities can be guaranteed.”
The move marks a significant setback for international nonproliferation efforts. Iran remains a member of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), which requires transparency with the IAEA.
What Comes Next?
While Trump and his allies portray the strikes as a historic success, many in the national security community remain skeptical. The real impact of the operation may not be known for weeks or even months, as analysts continue to assess the damage and monitor Iran’s response.
Experts warn that absent a long-term diplomatic strategy, airstrikes alone are unlikely to neutralize Iran’s nuclear ambitions. As the international community waits for more clarity, the risk of miscalculation and further escalation remains high.
Reporting by Davis Winkie. Support for Winkie’s national security coverage comes from the Outrider Foundation and Journalism Funding Partners. Editorial independence is maintained at all times.
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